The Analysis of White House Occupant and Political Polarization in the United States

Authors

  • Oluwole Owoye Western Connecticut State University
  • Matthew Dabros Aurora University

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.18533/rss.v2i4.94

Keywords:

Congressional productivity, Dominant strategy, Partisanship, Political polarization, White House Occupant.

Abstract

This paper examines a previously unidentified causal factor – White House Occupant (WHO) or President of the United States (POTUS) – in political polarization and then investigates its impact on legislative productivity and the aggregate economy. Objective pundits would agree that the United States has entered a new phase of “toxically pandemic political polarization” because Congressional Republicans had racial resentment of Obama and they did everything to obstruct his policy agenda; and now, in retaliation and on policy issues, Democrats resent Trump. In view of the changing American electorate, we consider WHO’s or POTUS’s race or gender or perceived religious affiliation or policy positions to be an important causal factor that will contribute to extreme political polarization in the foreseeable future. This is problematic because a WHO could take advantage of a highly polarized and dysfunctional Congress to undermine the democratic principles that American cherish if Congressional members of his/her majority party are unwilling to provide the constitutional checks and balances. We model how political polarization will in turn depress economic growth. In addition to introducing a novel element to the ongoing research on the consequences of political polarization, this paper contributes to the broader literature by asserting that a WHO or POTUS is one of the determinants of political polarization and Congressional productivity; and that the remarkable contraction in Congressional productivity during Obama’s presidency, which we found to be statistically and significantly different from the other three two-term presidents who served in the past four decades supported this assertion.

This paper examines a previously unidentified causal factor – White House Occupant (WHO) or President of the United States (POTUS) – in political polarization and then investigates its impact on legislative productivity and the aggregate economy. Objective pundits would agree that the United States has entered a new phase of “toxically pandemic political polarization” because Congressional Republicans had racial resentment of Obama and they did everything to obstruct his policy agenda; and now, in retaliation and on policy issues, Democrats resent Trump. In view of the changing American electorate, we consider WHO’s or POTUS’s race or gender or perceived religious affiliation or policy positions to be an important causal factor that will contribute to extreme political polarization in the foreseeable future. This is problematic because a WHO could take advantage of a highly polarized and dysfunctional Congress to undermine the democratic principles that American cherish if Congressional members of his/her majority party are unwilling to provide the constitutional checks and balances. We model how political polarization will in turn depress economic growth. In addition to introducing a novel element to the ongoing research on the consequences of political polarization, this paper contributes to the broader literature by asserting that a WHO or POTUS is one of the determinants of political polarization and Congressional productivity; and that the remarkable contraction in Congressional productivity during Obama’s presidency, which we found to be statistically and significantly different from the other three two-term presidents who served in the past four decades supported this assertion. 

 

Author Biographies

  • Oluwole Owoye, Western Connecticut State University
    Professor of Economics
  • Matthew Dabros, Aurora University

    Assistant Professor of Political Science

References

Abramowitz, Alan I. 2010. The Disappearing Center: Engaged Citizens, Polarization, and American Democracy. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.

Acemoglu, Daron. 2009. Introduction to Modern Economic Growth. Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University Press.

Adler, E. Scott and John Wilkerson. Congressional Bills Project. http://congressionalbills.org.

Aldrich, John. 1995. Why Parties? The Origin and Transformation of Political Parties in America. University of Chicago Press. https://doi.org/10.7208/chicago/9780226012773.001.0001

Ansolabehere, Stephen, John M. de Figueiredo, and James M. Snyder. 2003. "Why is There so Little Money in U.S. Politics?" Journal of Economic Perspectives, 17(1): 105-130. https://doi.org/10.1257/089533003321164976

Ansolabehere, Stephen, Jonathan Rodden, and James M. Snyder. 2006. "Purple America." Journal of Economic Perspectives 20(2): 97-118. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.20.2.97

Bafumi, Joseph, and Michael C. Herron. 2010. "Leapfrog Representation and Extremism: A Study of American Voters and Their Members in Congress." American Political Science Review 104(03): 519-542. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055410000316

Barber, Michael and Nolan McCarty. 2013. "Causes and Consequences of Polarization." In Negotiating Agreement in Politics, eds. Jane Mansbridge and Cathie Jo Martin. America Political Science Association

Barber, Michael. 2013. "Ideological Donors, Contribution Limits, and the Polarization of State Legislatures?" Typescript. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University.

Baron, David P. 1994. "Electoral Competition with Informed and Uniformed Voters." American Political Science Review 88(1): 33-47. https://doi.org/10.2307/2944880

Bartels, Larry. 2000. "Partisanship and Voting Behavior 1952–1996." American Journal of Political Science 44(1): 35-50. https://doi.org/10.2307/2669291

Bartels, Larry. 2008. Unequal Democracy: The Political Economy of the New Gilded Age. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.

Becker, Gary S. 1957. The Economic of Discrimination. University of Chicago Press.

Bishop, Bill. 2009. The Big Sort: Why the Clustering of Like-Minded Americans Is Tearing Us Apart. New York: Mariner Books.

Bonica, Adam. 2013. "Ideology and Interests in the Political Marketplace." American Journal of Political Science 57(2): 294-311. https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12014

Bonilla-Silva, Eduardo. 2010. Racism without Racists: Color-Blind Racism and Racial Inequality in Contemporary America. 3rd edition. New York: Rowman and Littlefield.

Brewer, Mark, Mack Mariani, and Jeffrey M. Stonecash. 2002. Diverging Parties: Social Change, Realignment, and Party Polarization. Boulder, CO: Westview Press.

Bullock, Will, and Joshua D. Clinton. 2011. "More a Molehill than a Mountain: The Effects of the Blanket Primary on Elected Officials' Behavior from California." Journal of Politics 73(3): 915-930. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022381611000557

Carsey, T. M., & Layman, G. C. 2006. "Changing Sides or Changing Minds? Party Identification and Policy Preferences in the American Electorate," American Journal of Political Science, 50(2): 464-477. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2006.00196.x

Carson, Jamie L., Michael H. Crespin, Charles J. Finocchiaro, and David W. Rohde. 2007. "Redistricting and Party Polarization in the US House of Representatives." American Politics Research 35(6): 878 -904. https://doi.org/10.1177/1532673X07304263

Clinton, Joshua D. 2006. "Representation in Congress: Constituents and Roll Calls in the 106th House." Journal of Politics 68(2): 397-409. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2508.2006.00415.x

CNN. 2009. "Carter Again Cites Racism as Factor in Obama's Treatment." CNN. 17 September

Cooper, Michael. 2012. "Conservatives Sowed Idea of Health Care Mandate, Only to Spurn it

Cox, Gary, and Mathew McCubbins. 2005. Setting the Agenda: Responsible Party Government in the U.S. House of Representatives. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511791123

Darity, Jr. William (1989), "What's Left of the Economics of Discrimination?" in William Darity, Jr., Editor of the Economics of Discrimination – International Library of Critical Writings in Economics series; two volume set by Edward Elgar Publishing, 1995.

DellaVigna, Stefano, and Ethan Kaplan. 2007. "The Fox News Effect: Media Bias and Voting." Quarterly Journal of Economics 122(3): 1187-1234. https://doi.org/10.1162/qjec.122.3.1187

Edwards, Mickey. 2012. The Parties versus the People: How to Turn Republicans and Democrats into Americans. Yale University Press.

Eilperin, Juliet. 2007. Fight Club Politics: How Partisanship Is Poisoning the House of Representatives. Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield.

Ellenberg, Jordan. 2001. "Growing Apart: The Mathematical Evidence for Congress' Growing Polarization" at www.slate.com/articles/life/do_the_math/2001/12/growing_apart.html.

Ensley, Michael J. 2009. "Individual Campaign Contributions and Candidate Ideology," Public Choice 138(1): 221-238. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-008-9350-6

Fiorina, Morris P. 2013. "Party Homogeneity and Contentious Politics," In Can We Talk? The Rise of Rude, Nasty, Stubborn Politics, Daniel M. Shea and Morris P. Fiorina eds. New York: Pearson: 142-153.

Fiorina, Morris P., and Samuel J. Abrams. 2008. "Political Polarization in the American Public." Annual Review Political Science 11: 563-588. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.polisci.11.053106.153836

Fiorina, Morris P., Samuel J. Abrams, and Jeremy Pope. 2005. Culture War? Myth of a Polarized America. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Pearson Education.

Garand, James C. 2010. "Income Inequality, Party Polarization, and Roll-Call Voting in the US Senate." Journal of Politics 72(04): 1109-1128. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022381610000563

Gelman, Andrew. 2009. Red State, Blue State, Rich State, and Poor State: Why Americans Vote the Way They Do. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400832118

Gentzkow, Matthew, and Jesse M. Shapiro. 2006. "Media Bias and Reputation." Journal of Political Economy 114(2): 280-316. https://doi.org/10.1086/499414

Gerber, Alan, Dean Karlan, and Daniel Bergan. 2009. "Does the Media Matter? A Field Experiment Measuring the Effect of Newspapers on Voting Behavior and Political Opinions." American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 1(2): 35-52. https://doi.org/10.1257/app.1.2.35

Gilens, Martin. 2012. Affluence and Influence: Economic Inequality and Political Power in America. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.

Gilmour, John. 1995. Strategic Disagreement: Stalemate in American Politics. University of Pittsburgh Press.

Groseclose, Timothy, and Nolan McCarty. 2001. "The Politics of Blame: Bargaining before an Audience." American Journal of Political Science 45(1): 100-119. https://doi.org/10.2307/2669362

Groseclose, Timothy, and Jeff Milyo. 2005. "A Measure of Media Bias." Quarterly Journal of Economics 120(4): 1191-1237. https://doi.org/10.1162/003355305775097542

Hacker, Jacob S., and Paul Pierson. 2006. Off Center: The Republican Revolution and the Erosion of American Democracy. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.

Hall, Robert L., and Frank W. Wayman. 1990. "Buying Time: Moneyed Interests and the Mobilization of Bias in Congressional Committees." American Political Science Review 84(3): 797-820. https://doi.org/10.2307/1962767

Hare, Christopher and Keith T. Poole (2014), "The Polarization of Contemporary American Politics, Polity, 46(3): 411-430. https://doi.org/10.1057/pol.2014.10

Hare, Christopher, Nolan McCarty, Keith T. Poole, and Howard Rosenthal. 2012. "Polarization is Real (and Asymmetric)." Voteview Blog. 16 July 2016 http://voteview.com/blog/?p=494

Hirano, Shigeo, James M. Snyder, Jr., Stephen Ansolabehere, and John Mark Hansen. 2010. "Primary Elections and Partisan Polarization in U.S. Congressional Elections." Quarterly Journal of Political Science 5(2): 169-191. https://doi.org/10.1561/100.00008052

Huddy, Leonie and Stanley Feldman. 2009. "On Assessing the Political Effects of Racial Prejudice." Annual Review of Political Science 12: 423-447. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.polisci.11.062906.070752

Hughey, Matthew W. 2012. "Show Me Your Papers! Obama's Birth and the Whiteness of Belonging." Qualitative Sociology 35: 163-181. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11133-012-9224-6

James, David. 2013. "Lawmakers in Name Only? Congress Reaches Productivity Lows." National Public Radio. National Public Radio. 03 December 2013. Web. http://www.npr.org/blogs/itsallpolitics/2013/12/03/ 248565341/lawmakers-in-name-only-congress-reaches-productivity-lows.

Jacobson, Gary C. 1990. "The Effects of Campaign Spending in House Elections: New Evidence for Old Arguments." American Journal of Political Science 34(2): 334-362. https://doi.org/10.2307/2111450

Katz, Evan (2016), "Does Political Capital Matter?" Politics in Theory and Practice: Analyzing International Relations and American Politics. https://politicstheorypractice.wordpress.com/2016/04/06/does-political-capital-matter.

Kaufmann, Karen M., James G. Gimpel, and Adam H. Hoffman. 2003. "A Promise Fulfilled? Open Primaries and Representation." Journal of Politics 65(2): 457-476. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-2508.t01-2-00009

Klein, Ezra. 2012. "Unpopular Mandate: Why Do Politicians Reverse Their Positions?" The New Yorker. 25 June 2012. http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2012/06/25/unpopular-mandate.

Klinkner, Philip A. 2004. "Red and Blue Scare: The Continuing Diversity of the American Electoral Landscape." The Forum (2)2. https://doi.org/10.2202/1540-8884.1035

Laband, D. N. 1986. "Congressional Junketeering: Public Sector X-Inefficiency." Journal of Economics and Business 38: 131 - 140. https://doi.org/10.1016/0148-6195(86)90023-8

Ladewig, Jeffrey W. 2014. "Polity Symposium: Partisan Polarization and American Democracy," Polity, 46(3): 407-410. https://doi.org/10.1057/pol.2014.16

Layman, Geoffrey, and Thomas Carsey. 2002. "Party Polarization and 'Conflict Extension' in the American Electorate." American Journal of Political Science 46(4):786-802. https://doi.org/10.2307/3088434

Layman, Geoffrey C., Thomas M. Carsey, John C. Green, Richard Herrera, and Rosalyn Cooperman. 2010. "Activists and Conflict Extension in American Party Politics." American Political Science Review 104(2): 324-346. https://doi.org/10.1017/S000305541000016X

Lee, Frances. 2009. Beyond Ideology: Politics, Principles, and Partisanship in the U.S. Senate. University of Chicago Press. https://doi.org/10.7208/chicago/9780226470771.001.0001

Lenz, Gabriel S. 2012. Follow the Leader: How Voters Respond to Politicians' Policies and Performance. University of Chicago Press. https://doi.org/10.7208/chicago/9780226472157.001.0001

Lessig, Lawrence. 2011. Republic, Lost: How Money Corrupts Congress—and a Plan to Stop It. New York: Twelve/Hachette Book Group.

Levendusky, Matthew. 2009. The Partisan Sort: How Liberals Became Democrats and Conservatives Became Republicans. University of Chicago Press. https://doi.org/10.7208/chicago/9780226473673.001.0001

Levendusky, Matthew S., Jeremy C. Pope, and Simon D. Jackman. 2008. "Measuring District-Level Partisanship with Implications for the Analysis of US Elections." Journal of Politics 70(3): 736-753. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022381608080729

Mann, Thomas E., and Norman J. Ornstein. 2012. It's Even Worse Than It Looks: How the American Constitutional System Collided with the New Politics of Extremism. New York: Basic Books.

Masket, Seth, Boris Shor, Steven Rogers, and Nolan McCarty. 2013. "A Primary Cause of Partisanship? Nomination Systems and Legislator Ideology." Typescript. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University.

McCarty, Nolan, Keith T. Poole, and Howard Rosenthal. 1997. Income Redistribution and the Realignment of American Politics. Washington, DC: AEI Press.

McCarty, Nolan, Keith T. Poole, and Howard Rosenthal. 2001. "The Hunt for Party Discipline in Congress." American Political Science Review 95(3): 673-688. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055401003069

McCarty, Nolan, Keith T. Poole, and Howard Rosenthal. 2006. Polarized America: The Dance of Ideology and Unequal Riches. Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press.

McCarty, Nolan, Keith T. Poole, and Howard Rosenthal. 2009. "Does Gerrymandering Cause Polarization?" American Journal of Political Science 53(3): 666-680. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2009.00393.x

McClosky, Herbert, Paul J. Hoffmann, and Rosemary O'Hara. 1960. "Issue Conflict and Consensus among Party Leaders and Followers." American Political Science Review 54(2): 406-427. https://doi.org/10.2307/1978302

Moon, Woojin. 2004. "Party Activists, Campaign Resources and Candidate Position Taking: Theory, Tests and Applications." British Journal of Political Science 34(4): 611-633. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123404000213

Petersen, R. Eric., Terrence L. Lisbeth, Mabel Gracias, and Parker H. Reynolds. 2010.

Piketty, Thomas, and Emmanuel Saez. 2003. "Income Inequality in the United States 1913–1998." Quarterly Journal of Economics 118(1): 1-39. https://doi.org/10.1162/00335530360535135

Poole, Keith T. 2007. "Changing Minds? Not in Congress!" Public Choice 131:435-451 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-006-9124-y

Prior, Markus. 2007. Post-Broadcast Democracy: How Media Choice Increases Inequality in Political Involvement and Polarizes Elections. New York: Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139878425

Rasmusen, Eric. 2007. Games and Information: An Introduction to Game Theory, 4 Edition. Malden, MA: Blackwell Publishing Limited.

Roberts, Jason M. 2007. "The Statistical Analysis of Roll-Call Data: A Cautionary Tale." Legislative Studies Quarterly 32(3): 341-360. https://doi.org/10.3162/036298007781699636

Roberts, Jason M., and Steven S. Smith. 2003. "Procedural Contexts, Party Strategy, and Conditional Party Voting in the US House of Representatives." American Journal of Political Science 47(2): 305-317. https://doi.org/10.1111/1540-5907.00021

Rohde, David W. 1991. Parties and Leaders in the Postreform House. University of Chicago Press. https://doi.org/10.7208/chicago/9780226724058.001.0001

Rosenthal, Andrew. 2012. "Nobody Likes to Talk About It, but It's There." The New York Times. 3 January 2012. http://takingnote.blogs.nytimes.com

Sears, David and P.J. Henry. 2005. "Over Thirty Years Later: A Contemporary Look at Symbolic Racism and Its Critics." Advances in Experimental Social Psychology 37: 95-150. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0065-2601(05)37002-X

Shaw, Daron. 2012. "If Everyone Votes Their Party, Why Do Presidential Election Outcomes Vary So Much?" The Forum 3(1), Article 1. https://doi.org/10.1515/1540-8884.1519

Shor, Boris, and Nolan McCarty. 2011. "The Ideological Mapping of American Legislatures." American Political Science Review 105(3): 530-551. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055411000153

Sinclair, Barbara. 2006. Party Wars: Polarization and the Politics of National Policy Making. University of Oklahoma Press.

Smith, Richard A. 1995. "Interest Group Influence in the US Congress." Legislative Studies Quarterly 20(1): 89-139. https://doi.org/10.2307/440151

Snyder, Jr., James M., and Tim Groseclose. 2000. "Estimating Party Influence in Congressional Roll-Call Voting." American Journal of Political Science 44(2): 193-211. https://doi.org/10.2307/2669305

Snyder, Jr., James M., and David Stromberg. 2010. "Press Coverage and Political Accountability," Journal of Political Economy 118(2): 355-408. https://doi.org/10.1086/652903

Stiglitz, Joseph E. (1973), "The Approaches to the Economics of Discrimination," The American Economic Review, 63(2): 287-295.

Stone, Walt J., and Elizabeth N. Simas. 2010. "Candidate Valence and Ideological Positions in US House Elections." American Journal of Political Science 54(2): 371-388. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2010.00436.x

Sunstein, Cass R. 2002. "The Law of Group Polarization." Journal of Political Philosophy 10: 175-195. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9760.00148

Theriault, Sean M. 2008a. Party Polarization in Congress. New York: Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511790652

Theriault, Sean M. 2008b. "The Procedurally Polarized Congress." Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Boston, MA.

Tope, Daniel, Justin T. Pickett, Ryon J. Cobb, and Jonathan Dirlam. 2014. "Othering Obama: Racial Attitudes and Dubious Beliefs about the Nation's First Black President." Sociological Perspective, 57(4): 450-469. https://doi.org/10.1177/0731121414536140

Tufte, Edward R. 1973. "The Relationship between Seats and Votes in Two-Party Systems." American Political Science Review 67(2): 540-554. https://doi.org/10.2307/1958782

Weil, David N. 2013. Economic Growth, Addison-Wesley/Pearson Publisher.

Zoellick, R. B. 1999. "Congress and the Making of U.S. Foreign Policy." Survival 41: 20-41. https://doi.org/10.1080/713660133

Downloads

Published

2017-05-13

Issue

Section

Articles

Similar Articles

1-10 of 17

You may also start an advanced similarity search for this article.